Economic and Statistic

Advance Estimates

Generally, crop-wise area sown particulars are available only after conducting of Agricultural Census, every season. But it is too late to estimate crop-wise production at this juncture and of no use. This estimation should be well in advance prior to the agricultural Census, to assess whether the estimated production is sufficient to cater the needs stake-holders.

Further, it is also required for the purpose of Planning and to take policy decisions to regulate market fluctuations, public distribution, EXIM (Export and Import) policies MSP etc., and to take major policy decisions during the agriculture season (prior to the completion of Agriculture Census) (Kharif and Rabi), data on agriculture production is essential and as such Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture introduced a system of preparing “ Advance Estimates” in the year 1997-98 and being in implementation for estimation of production, important parameters required are:

SOURCE OF DATA:

The area sown particulars noted in the monthly cultivation accounts prepared by the revenue officials at village level, (i.e., V.R.O.) the area figures will be aggregated at Mandal, District and at State levels. The yield rate for each crops will be worked out based on Crops Cutting Experiments results and existing seasonal conditions and thereby basically four periodical advance estimates are prepared during an Agricultural year and they are as follows.

FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES:

The areas likely to be sownupto the end of the Kharif season have to be reported by 15th August in the prescribed format by the CPOs. Cut off date for submission of first advance estimates to the Government of India is 21th August every year.

Area: The area figures of kharif season at the state level will be based on the advance estimate figures provided by the districts

Yield: The Normal yields (average of preceding 5 years) will be adopted.

Production= Area x Yield

SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES: ( AREA OF KHARIF AND RABI):

The actual area sown in kharif season and area sown upto 25th December and likely to be sown during the rest of Rabi season have to be furnished .Cut of date for furnishing of second advance estimates report to GOI is 5th January, every year.

Area:	The area figures of Actual kharif season and estimated figures of the Rabi season at the state level will be based on the advance Estimated figures provided by the Chief Planning officers.
Yield:	Preliminary estimates are worked out for the crops for which60% of the Crop Cutting experiment results are received from all the planned districts and for the remaining crops advance estimates will be arrived.

THIRD ADVANCE ESTIMATES:

The actual area sown in kharif and likely area sown in Rabi seasons have to be furnished and estimates report should reach Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India by 5th April.

Area:	The actual area figures of Actual kharif and estimated figures of Rabi season at the state level will be based on the figures provided by the districts.
Yield:	For the kharif crops the preliminary / Final estimates will be Adopted / For the Rabi crops preliminary / Advance estimates will be adopted.

FOURTH ADVANCE ESTIMATES:

The fourth advance estimates of area, yield and production of kharif crops and revised estimates of area, yield and production of Rabi crops have to be furnished to the Government of India by 19th June.

Area:	The Final area figures of kharif and Rabi seasons are available by this time will be adopted.
Yield:	For kharif crops, final productivity estimates will be adopted. For Rabi crops preliminary estimates will be adopted.

Sl.No	Advance Estimate	Area sown upto	Due date
1	First	15th August	21st August
2	Second	31st December	5th January
3	Third	30th March	5th April
4	Fourth	31st May	30th June
5	Final	31st May	15th November